AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH COUNCIL
Centre of Excellence for Mathematics
and Statistics of Complex Systems

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Activities at the University of Queensland

Centre meetings

  • Special Session, Statistical Methods for Natural Systems, 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 10-13 December 2007 [report]
  • Workshop on Mathematics and Statistics in Genetics, University of Queensland, 21st April 2006 [report]
  • Special Session, Management, Control and Decision Making for Ecological Systems, 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Melbourne, 12-15 December 2005 [report]
  • Workshop on Markov Chains, University of Queensland, 4th April 2005 [report]
  • One-day Symposium, Multi-Agent Systems and Machine Learning, University of Queensland, 26th November 2004 [report]
  • Workshop on Metapopulations, University of Queensland, 2nd September 2004 [report]
  • Workshop on Probability and its Applications, University of Melbourne, 14th May 2004 [report]
  • One-day Symposium, The Cross-Entropy Method: a New Approach to Rare Event Simulation and Randomized Optimization, University of Queensland, 22nd January 2004 [report]

Additionally, MASCOS Qld was a major sponsor of the following events:

  • Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005 [website|photo]
  • Winter School in Mathematics and Computational Biology, University of Queensland, 5-9 July 2004.

Weekly meetings   Research staff and students of MASCOS Queensland meet almost every week of the year in Room 641 of the Priestley (Mathematics) Building (67-641) on Thursdays at 11:00am. Afterwards we join up for coffee at Wordsmiths Café.

Seminars   Periodically, we hold a special series of seminars highlighting research done by MASCOS Qld research staff and students. Topics range from mathematical modelling in ecology, genetics and finance, to theoretical stochastic processes and ergodic theory [2006|2004]

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Other conference organization

  • Martin O'Hely chaired a session at the 43rd Australasian Applied Mathematics Conference (ANZIAM07), Fremantle, Western Australia, 28 January - 1 February 2007
  • Daniel Pagendam and Phil Pollett are organizing a special session titled Statistical Methods for Natural Systems at 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 10-13 December 2007 [A special issue of Ecological Modelling will contain papers from that session.] They serve on the Editorial Board of the published proceedings: Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007
  • Phil Pollett served on the Programme Committee of the 8th Asia-Pacific Complex Systems Conference (Complex'07), Surfers Paradise Marriott Resort, Surfers Paradise, Australia, 2-5 July 2007
  • Phil Pollett served on the Organising Committee of the AMSI/MASCOS Industry Workshop & ICE-EM Short Course: The Mathematics of Electricity Supply and Pricing, Holiday Inn, Surfers Paradise, Australia, 22-27 April 2007
  • Phil Pollett chaired the session Computational Modelling for Biology and Chemistry at the 8th Asia-Pacific Complex Systems Conference (Complex'07), Surfers Paradise Marriott Resort, Surfers Paradise, Australia, 2-5 July 2007
  • David Sirl served on the Organising Committee of the 3rd Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of New South Wales, February 2007
  • Joshua Ross served on the Organising Committee of the 2nd Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Melbourne, 12-15 February 2006
  • Phil Pollett served on the Advisory Committee of the 2nd Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Melbourne, 12-15 February 2006
  • Phil Pollett chaired a session at the 42nd Australasian Applied Mathematics Conference (ANZIAM06), Mansfield, Victoria, 5-9 February 2006
  • Phil Pollett served as co-chair of the 5th International Symposium on Probability and its Applications, IMS Annual Meeting, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 30 July-4 August 2006
  • Phil Pollett and Joshua Ross organized a special session titled Management, control and decision making for ecological systems at the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Melbourne, 12-15 December 2005. [A special issue of Ecological Modelling (Volume 201, 2007) contain papers from that session.] They served on the Editorial Board of the published proceedings: Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005 (ISBN: 0-9758400-2-9)
  • Phil Pollett served on the Programme Committee of the Stochastic Modelling of Complex Systems Conference (SMOCS05), Daydream Island, 10-16 July 2005
  • Phil Pollett served on the Programme Committee of the 30th Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications, University of California at Santa Barbara, 26 June-1 July 2005
  • MASCOS PhD students organized the inaugural Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005 [website|photo]
  • Thomas Taimre chaired a session titled The Cross-Entropy Method for Monte-Carlo Simulation at the INFORMS Annual Meeting, Denver, USA, 24-27 October 2004
  • Phil Pollett served on the Organizing Committee of the Workshop on Stochastics and their Applications, University of South Australia, 27 September-1 October 2004
  • Phil Pollett organized a Special Session (with Peter Taylor, University of Melbourne) at Australian Statistical Conference (ASC 2004) to celebrate the 65th birthday of Daryl Daley and to present him with a festschrift, Cairns, 11-16 July 2004
  • Phil Pollett served on the Programme Committee of the 2nd International Conference in Applied Probability (IWAP 2004), 22-25 March 2004, University of Piraeus, Greece
  • Ben Cairns chaired a session titled Applied Probability Models for Ecological Systems at the 2nd International Conference in Applied Probability (IWAP 2004), 22-25 March 2004, University of Piraeus, Greece

Refereed papers 2008

  1. Kravchuk, O. and J. Hu (2008) Tail-adaptive location rank test of the generalized secant hyperbolic distribution. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation 37, 1052-1063.
  2. Ross, J.V., Sirl, D.J., Pollett, P.K. and H.P. Possingham (2008) Metapopulation persistence in a dynamic landscape: more habitat or better stewardship? Ecological Applications 18, 590-598.
  3. Van Doorn, E.A. and Pollett, P.K. (2008) Survival in a quasi-death process. Linear Algebra and its Applications 429, 776-791.

Refereed papers 2007

  1. Botev, Z.I., Kroese, D.P. and T. Taimre (2007) Generalized cross entropy methods with applications to rare event simulation and optimization Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International 83, 785-806.
  2. Cairns, B.J., Ross, J.V. and T. Taimre (2007) A comparison of models for predicting population persistence. Ecological Modelling 201, 19-26.
  3. Chen, A., Pollett, P.K., Li, J. and H. Zhang (2007) A remark on the uniqueness of weighted Markov branching processes. Journal of Applied Probability 44, 279-283.
  4. Kroese, D.P, Rubinstein, R.Y. and T. Taimre (2007) Application of the Cross-Entropy Method to clustering and vector quantization. Journal of Global Optimization 37, 137-157.
  5. O'Hely, M. (2007) A diffusion model for the fate of tandem gene duplicates in diploids. Theoretical Population Biology 71, 491-501.
  6. O'Hely, M. and L. Wockner (2007) Models for loosely-linked gene duplicates suggest lengthy persistence of both copies. Journal of Theoretical Biology 246, 636-645.
  7. Pagendam, D.E. and P.K. Pollett (2007) Optimal sampling and problematic likelihood functions in a simple population model. In (Eds. Oxley, L. and Kulasiri, D.) Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007, pp. 2946-2952.
  8. Pollett, P.K. (2007) Ensemble behaviour in population processes with applications to ecological systems. In (Eds. Oxley, L. and Kulasiri, D.) Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007, pp. 2903-2909.
  9. Pollett, P.K., Zhang, H. and B.J. Cairns (2007) A note on extinction times for the general birth, death and catastrophe process. Journal of Applied Probability 44, 565-568.
  10. Ross, J.V. and P.K. Pollett (2007) On costs and decisions in population management. Ecological Modelling 201, 60-66.
  11. Ross, J.V., Taimre, T. and P.K. Pollett (2007) Estimation for queues from queue length data. Queueing Systems 55, 131-138.
  12. Ross, J.V. and T. Taimre (2007) On the analysis of hospital infection data using Markov models. In (Eds. Oxley, L. and Kulasiri, D.) Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007, pp. 2939-2945.
  13. Sani, A., Kroese, D.P. and P.K. Pollett (2007) Stochastic models for the spread of HIV in a mobile heterosexual population. Mathematical Biosciences 208, 98-124.
  14. Sirl, D., Zhang, H. and P.K. Pollett (2007) Computable bounds for the decay parameter of a birth-death process. Journal of Applied Probability 44, 476-491.
  15. Stace, A.W. (2007) A moment matching approach to the valuation of a volume weighted average price option. International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 10, 95-110.
  16. Vuilleumier, S., Wilcox, C., Cairns, B.J. and H.P. Possingham (2007) How patch configuration affects the impact of disturbances on metapopulation persistence. Theoretical Population Biology 72, 77-85.
  17. Wagner, L.D., Ross, J.V. and H.P. Possingham (2007) Catastrophe management and inter-reserve distance for marine reserve networks. Ecological Modelling 201, 82-88.

Refereed papers 2006

  1. Botev, Z.I., Kroese, D.P. and T. Taimre (2006) Generalized cross-entropy methods for rare events and optimization, Proceedings of 6th International Workshop on Rare Event Simulation (RESIM 2006), Bamberg, Germany 8-10 October 2006, pp. 1-30.
  2. Kravchuk, O. (2006) R-estimator of location of the generalized secant hyperbolic distribution. Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation 35, 1-18.
  3. Kravchuk, O. (2006) Two-sample scale rank procedures optimal for the generalized secant hyperbolic distribution. Proceedings of the 5th Annual Hawaii International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics and Related Fields, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, 16-18 January 2006, pp. 1092-1102.
  4. Lesmono, D. and E. Tonkes (2006) Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: a game theory approach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research 23, 287-309.
  5. O'Hely, M. (2006) A diffusion approach to approximating preservation probabilities for gene duplicates. Journal of Mathematical Biology 53, 215-230.
  6. Ross, J.V. (2006) Comment on "On the Regulation of Populations of Mammals, Birds, Fish, and Insects" II [Sibly et al., Science 309, 607 (2005)]. Science 311, 1100.
  7. Ross, J.V. (2006) A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics. Journal of Mathematical Biology 52, 788-806.
  8. Ross, J.V. (2006) Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 68, 417-449.
  9. Ross, J.V. and P.K. Pollett (2006) Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases. Mathematical Biosciences 202, 310-322.
  10. Ross, J.V., Taimre, T. and P.K. Pollett (2006) On parameter estimation in population models. Theoretical Population Biology 70, 498-510.
  11. Wilcox, C., Cairns, B.J. and H.P. Possingham (2006) The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence. Ecology 87, 855-863.

Refereed papers 2005

  1. Cairns, B.J. and P.K. Pollett (2005) Approximating measures of persistence in a general class of population processes. Theoretical Population Biology 68, 77-90.
  2. Cairns, B.J., Ross, J.V. and T. Taimre (2005) Models for predicting extinction times: shall we dance (or walk or jump)? In (Eds. Zerger, A. and Argent, R.M.) Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2061-2067 (ISBN: 0-9758400-2-9).
  3. Chen, A., Pollett, P.K., Zhang, H. and B.J. Cairns (2005) Uniqueness criteria for continuous-time Markov chains with general transition structures. Advances in Applied Probability 37, 1056-1074.
  4. *Gray, B., Pollett, P.K. and H. Zhang (2005) On the existence of uni-instantaneous Q-processes with a given finite m-invariant measure. Journal of Applied Probability 42, 713-725.
  5. Hou, Z., Liu, Y. and H. Zhang (2005) Subgeometric rates of convergence for a class of continuous time Markov processes. Journal of Applied Probability 42, 698-712.
  6. Kravchuk, O. (2005) Rank test of location optimal for the hyperbolic secant distribution. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods 34, 1617-1630.
  7. Lesmono, D. and E.J. Tonkes (2005) Optimal strategies in political elections. ANZIAM Journal 46(E), C764-C785.
  8. Lesmono, D., Tonkes, E. and K. Burrage (2005) A continuous time model for election timing. Australian Mathematical Society Gazette 32, 329-338.
  9. Loch, B., Stace, A.W. and E. Tonkes (2005) An innovative learning model for computation in first year mathematics. In (Ed. Bulmer, M.R.) Proceedings of the 5th Southern Hemisphere Symposium on Undergraduate Mathematics and Statistics Teaching and Learning (Delta'05), Fraser Island, Queensland, Australia, 22-26 November 2005 (available in electronic form at USQ ePrints).
  10. Loch, B.I., Tonkes, E.J. and A.W. Stace (2005) An innovative learning model for computation in first year mathematics. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology 36, 751-759.
  11. Ma, R. and B. Thompson (2005) Multiplicity results for second-order two-point boundary value problems with superlinear and sublinear nonlinearities. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 303, 726-735.
  12. Ma, R. and B. Thompson (2005) Multiplicity results for second-order two-point boundary value problems with nonlinearities across several eigenvalues. Applied Mathematics Letters 18, 587-595.
  13. Ma, M. and D. O'Regan (2005) Solvability of singular second order m-point boundary value problems. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 301, 124-134.
  14. Pollett, P.K. and J.V. Ross (2005) Costs and decisions in population management: koalas on Kangaroo Island. In (Eds. Zerger, A. and Argent, R.M.) Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2082-2088 (ISBN: 0-9758400-2-9).
  15. Skellett, B., Cairns, B.J., Geard, N., Tonkes, B., and J. Wiles (2005) Maximally rugged NK landscapes contain the highest peaks. In (Ed. H. Breyer) Proceedings of the 2005 Conference on Genetic and Evolutionary Computation, Vol. 1, ACM Press, New York, USA, pp. 579-584.

Refereed papers 2004

  1. *Cairns, B.J. and P.K. Pollett (2004) Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process. Journal of Applied Probability 41, 1211-1218.
  2. *Chen, A., Pollett, P.K., Zhang, H. and J. Li (2004) The collision branching process. Journal of Applied Probability 41, 1033-1048.
  3. *Chen, A., Zhang, H., Liu, K. and K. Rennolls (2004) Birth-death processes with disaster and instantaneous resurrection. Advances in Applied Probability 36, 267-292.
  4. Gladwin, B.A. and T. Huber (2004) Long time scale molecular dynamics using least action. The ANZIAM Journal 45(E) C534-C550.
  5. Ma, R. and B. Thompson (2004) Positive solutions for nonlinear m-point eigenvalue problems. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 297, 24-37.
  6. Ma, R. and B. Thompson (2004) Nodal solutions for nonlinear eigenvalue problems. Nonlinear Analysis 59, 707-718.
  7. *Pollett, P.K. and H. Zhang (2004) Existence and uniqueness of Q-processes with a given finite m-invariant measure. In (Eds. Philip K. Pollett and Peter G. Taylor) Festschrift in Honour of Daryl Daley, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics 46, 113-120.

Refereed papers 2003

  1. **Bebbington, M., Pollett, P.K. and I. Ziedins (2003) Product form approximations for highly linear loss networks with trunk reservation. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 38, 1147-1156.
  2. Boland, J., Kravchuk, O., Saman, W. and R. Kilsby (2003) Estimation of the thermal sensitivity of a dwelling to variations in architectural and behavioural parameters. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 8, 101-113.
  3. *Cairns, B.J. and P.K. Pollett (2003) Evaluating persistence times in populations that are subject to local catastrophes. In (Ed. David A. Post) Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Vol. 2, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Townsville, Australia, pp. 747-752.
  4. *Clancy, D. and P.K. Pollett (2003) A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic. Journal of Applied Probability 40, 821-825.
  5. *Pollett, P.K. (2003) Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains. Mathematical Biosciences 182, 113-225.
  6. *Pollett, P.K. and V.T. Stefanov (2003) A method for evaluating the distribution of the total cost of a random process over its lifetime. In (Ed. David A. Post) Proceedings of the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Vol. 4, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Townsville, Australia, pp. 1863-1867.
  7. *Pollett, P.K. and M.R. Thompson (2003) A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 38, 1409-1418.
  8. **Thompson, M.R. and P.K. Pollett (2003) A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences 7, 229-248.

Refereed papers in press

  1. Flegg, M.B., Pollett, P.K. and D.K. Gramotnev (2008) Ehrenfest model for the condensation and evaporation processes in degrading aggregates with multiple bonds. Physical Review E (to appear).
  2. Lesmono, D., Tonkes, E. and K. Burrage (2007) Opportunistic timing and manipulation in Australian Federal Elections. European Journal of Operational Research (to appear).
  3. Pagendam, D.E. and P.K. Pollett (2008) Optimal sampling and problematic likelihood functions in a simple population model. Environmental Modeling & Assessment (to appear).
  4. Pollett, P.K. (2008) Ensemble behaviour in population processes with applications to ecological systems. Environmental Modeling & Assessment (to appear).
  5. Pollett, P.K. (2008) Optimal capacity assignment in general queueing networks. In (Ed. C.E.M. Pearce) Optimization: Structure and Applications, Springer Optimization and its Applications Series (to appear).


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Books

  1. Kroese, D.P., Taimre, T., Botev, Z.I. and R.Y. Rubinstein (2007) Student Solutions Manual to Accompany Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, 2nd Edition, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Wiley. ISBN: 978-0-470-25879-8.


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Edited volumes

  1. Pollett, P.K. and P.G. Taylor (2004) Festschrift in Honour of Daryl Daley, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Zealand Journal of Statistics 46 (1). Print ISSN: 1369-1473, Online ISSN: 1467-842X.
  2. Pollett, P.K. and J.V. Ross (2007) Management, control and decision making for ecological systems, Ecological Modelling 201 (1). Print ISSN: 0304-3800.

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Submitted or under revision

  1. Adams, V.M., Wilcox, C., Pollett, P.K. and H.P. Possingham, Coexistence in metacommunities: a discrete time, finite patch approach.
  2. Chen, A., Pollett, P.K., Li, J. and Zhang, H., Uniqueness extinction and explosivity of the general branching process with pairwise interaction.
  3. Chen, A., Pollett, P.K., Li, J. and Zhang, H., Markovian bulk-arrival and bulk-service queues with state-dependent control I: construction and equilibrium properties.
  4. Lesmono, D., Pollett, P.K., Tonkes, E.J. and K. Burrage, A note on the existence and uniqueness of a bounded mean-reverting process.
  5. Liu, Y., Zhang, H. and Y. Zhao, Computable strongly ergodic rates of convergence for continuous-time Markov chains.
  6. Pollett, P.K., Dooley, A.H. and J.V. Ross, Modelling population processes with random initial conditions.
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Schools magazine articles

  1. Ross, J.V. (2006) Protect or Create?, Infinity 21.
  2. Garton, A. (2006) Music, the Fibonacci Sequence and the Golden Section, Infinity 20.
  3. Pollett, P.K. (2003) Complex systems, Infinity 15.
  4. Pollett, P.K. (2003) Life's Games, Infinity 15.
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Invited conference presentations 2008

  • Ensemble behaviour in population processes [Keynote address], 4th AMSI Australian Postgraduate Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling (APWSPM08), University of Adelaide, 10-13 February 2008 [pdf]

Invited conference presentations 2007

  • O'Hely, M. Importance sampling strategies for forwards and backwards processes in population genetics of gene duplication processes [Keynote address], 8th Asia-Pacific Complex Systems Conference (Complex'07), Surfers Paradise Marriott Resort, Surfers Paradise, Australia, 2-5 July 2007
  • Taimre, T. Likelihood ratio degeneracy in the Cross-Entropy Method (Part II), AMSI/MASCOS Mini-Symposium "Entropy Methods in Operations Research", University of Melbourne, 10 December 2007

Invited conference presentations 2006

  • O'Hely, M.  Models of gene duplication processes, MASCOS Research Workshop, MASCOS Melbourne, 20-21 February 2006
  • Palmer, J. Network models for seismicity CSIRO Big Day In CSIRO Industrial Physics, Lindfield, New South Wales, 16-17 February 2006
  • Pollett, P.K. Stochastic models and their deterministic analogues [Keynote address], 2nd AMSI/MASCOS Australian Postgraduate Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Melbourne, 12-15 February 2006 [pdf]
  • Pollett, P.K. Modelling the long-term behaviour of evanescent processes [Keynote address], 42nd Australasian Applied Mathematics Conference (ANZIAM06), Mansfield, Victoria, 5-9 February 2006 [pdf]
  • Zhang, H.  Computable strong ergodic convergence rates for continuous-time Markov chains, MASCOS Research Workshop, MASCOS Melbourne, 20-21 February 2006

Invited conference presentations 2005

  • Pollett, P.K. Which Markov chains have a given invariant measure?, Workshop on Markov Chains, University of Queensland, 4 April 2005 [pdf]
  • Pollett, P.K. Quasi-stationary distributions [Keynote address], Fields Institute Workshop on Large Deviations and Rare Events in Networks, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, 4-5 July 2005 [pdf]
  • Sirl, D.J. Markov chains: an introduction/review, Workshop on Markov Chains, University of Queensland, 4 April 2005 [pdf]
  • Zhang, H. Quasi-stationary distributions and the decay parameter, Workshop on Markov Chains, University of Queensland, 4 April 2005 [pdf]

Invited conference presentations 2004

  • Cairns, B.J. Extinction and invasion of metapopulations in stochastic environments, International Conference in Applied Probability (IWAP 2004), 22-25 March 2004, University of Piraeus, Greece [pdf]
  • Cairns, B.J. Extinction in metapopulations with environmental stochasticity driven by catastrophes a birth-death process, 1st MASCOS Workshop on Probability and its Applications, University of Melbourne, 14 May 2004 [pdf]
  • Cairns, B.J. Evaluating persistence times in populations that are subject to catastrophes, Winter School in Mathematics and Computational Biology, University of Queensland, 5-9 July 2004 [pdf|video]
  • Cairns, B.J. Limit theorems for metapopulation processes subject to catastrophes, Workshop on Metapopulation Modelling, University of Queensland, 2 September 2004 [pdf]
  • Cairns, B.J. Metapopulation processes in stochastic environments, Special Session on Complex Systems, 48th Annual Meeting of the Australian Mathematical Society, RMIT University, Melbourne, 28 September-1 October 2004 [pdf]
  • Cairns, B.J. The role of population ceilings in persistence, Annual conference of the Ecological Society of Australia, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 7-10 December 2004
  • Gladwin, B.A. Long time-frame path computation using least action, 1st MASCOS Workshop on Probability and its Applications, University of Melbourne, 14 May 2004 [ppt|avi]
  • Kravchuk, O. Brownian Bridge, the Cramer-von Mises test and the trigonometric score rank test of location, 1st MASCOS Workshop on Probability and its Applications, University of Melbourne, 14 May 2004 [ppt]
  • O'Hely, M. On priors in a bayesian framework with examples from estimating admixture and drift, European Science Foundation Exploratory Workshop "Archaeology and Genetics: towards (integrated) archaeogenetics", Seix, France, 2-5 June 2004.
  • Pollett, P.K. Evaluating the total cost of a random process over its lifetime, Winter School in Mathematics and Computational Biology, University of Queensland, 5-9 July 2004 [pdf|video]
  • Pollett, P.K. Limiting conditional distributions for stochastic metapopulation models, Workshop on Metapopulation Modelling, University of Queensland, 2 September 2004 [pdf]
  • Pollett, P.K. and Ross, J.V. Costs and decisions in population models, Workshop on Stochastics and their Applications, University of South Australia, 27 September-1 October 2004 [pdf]
  • Ross, J.V. Diffusion approximation for a metapopulation model with habitat dynamics, 1st MASCOS Workshop on Probability and its Applications, University of Melbourne, 14 May 2004 [pdf]
  • Ross, J.V. On the costs and decisions of controlling a population, Winter School in Mathematics and Computational Biology, University of Queensland, 5-9 July 2004 [pdf|video]
  • Ross, J.V. Diffusion approximation for a spatially realistic structured metapopulation model, Workshop on Metapopulation Modelling, University of Queensland, 2 September 2004 [pdf]
  • Sirl, D.J. Quasi-stationary distributions for continuous-time Markov chains, 1st MASCOS Workshop on Probability and its Applications, University of Melbourne, 14 May 2004 [pdf]
  • Taimre, T. Application of the Cross-Entropy Method to clustering and vector quantization MASCOS One-day Symposium on Multi-Agent Systems and Machine Learning University of Queensland, 26th November 2004
  • Zhang, H. The decay parameter and the smallest Dirichlet eigenvalue of a birth-death process, Special Session on Complex Systems, 48th Annual Meeting of the Australian Mathematical Society, RMIT University, Melbourne, 28 September-1 October 2004 [pdf]

Invited conference presentations 2003

  • Pollett, P.K. Identifying Markov chains with a given invariant measure, Oberwolfach Applied Probability Meeting, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach, Germany, 30 November-6 December 2003 [abstract|pdf|photo]

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Contributed conference presentations 2007

  • Chan, D.C., Pollett, P.K. and M.C. Weinstein Quantitative risk stratification in Makov chains with quasi-stationary distributions, 29th Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making, Pittsburgh, USA, 20-24 October 2007 [Poster]
  • O'Hely, M. and P. Pollett Markov models for genome evolution, 43rd Australasian Applied Mathematics Conference (ANZIAM07), Fremantle, Western Australia, 28 January - 1 February 2007
  • Pagendam, D.E. Optimal sampling and problematic likelihood functions in a simple population model, 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 10-13 December 2007
  • Pollett, P.K. Modelling population processes with random initial conditions, 8th Asia-Pacific Complex Systems Conference (Complex'07), Surfers Paradise Marriott Resort, Surfers Paradise, Australia, 2-5 July 2007 [pdf]
  • Pollett, P.K. Risk modelling at the University of Queensland, MASCOS Workshop on Risk Modelling, University of Melbourne, 24 September 2007
  • Pollett, P.K. Modelling population networks, MASCOS Workshop on Complex Networks, La Trobe University, 28 September 2007
  • Pollett, P.K. Ensemble behaviour in population processes with applications to ecological systems, 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 10-13 December 2007 [pdf]
  • Sirl, D.J. Bounds for the decay parameter of a birth-death process, 3rd Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of New South Wales, 11-14 February 2007
  • Sirl, D.J. Approximating extinction times and probabilities for absorbing birth-death process, 8th Asia-Pacific Complex Systems Conference (Complex'07), Surfers Paradise Marriott Resort, Surfers Paradise, Australia, 2-5 July 2007 [Poster]
  • Taimre, T., Botev, Z.I. and D.P. Kroese A Generalized cross-entropy method: discrete state spaces, 14th INFORMS Applied Probability Conference, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, 9-11 July 2007
  • Taimre, T. State-dependent importance sampling schemes via minimum cross-entropy, 51st Annual Meeting of the Australian Mathematical Society, La Trobe University, 25-28 September 2007

Contributed conference presentations 2006

  • Cope, R. and M. O'Hely Importance sampling strategies for assigning hybrid alleles to parental populations, Advanced Study Program in Science Undergraduate Research Conference 2006, Brisbane, 7 October 2006 [Poster]
  • Hu, J. and O. Kravchuk Tail-adaptive financial modelling with the generalised secant hyperbolic distribution, 23rd International Biometric Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16-21 July 2006 [Poster]
  • Kravchuk, O. Two-sample scale rank procedures optimal for the generalized secant hyperbolic distribution, 5th Annual Hawaii International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics and Related Fields, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, 16-18 January 2006
  • Kravchuk, O. and P.K. Pollett A Lepage-type test for the generalised secant hyperbolic distribution, 23rd International Biometric Conference, Montreal, Canada, 16-21 July 2006 [Poster]
  • Lesmono, D. A term structured volatility model of poll data and its application to election timing, International Conference on Mathematical Modelling and Computation, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, 5-8 June 2006
  • Lesmono, D. A mathematical model for surfing and manipulation in politics, International Congress of Mathematicians, Madrid, Spain, 22-30 August 2006 [Poster]
  • O'Hely, M. The frequency of a segregating duplicate gene, 31st Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Paris, 17-21 July 2006 [Poster]
  • Ross, J.V. Parameter estimation for Markov processes, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Melbourne, 13-15 February 2006
  • Ross, J.V. Parameter estimation for Markov processes, Australian and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics Meeting, Alzburg Inn Resort, Mansfield, Victoria, 5-9 February 2006
  • Ross, J.V., Taimre, T. and P.K. Pollett Parameter estimation for Markov processes, 31st Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Paris, 17-21 July 2006 [Poster]
  • Sirl, D.J. Bounds for the decay parameter of a birth-death process, Markov Processes and Related Topics (Conference in honour of Tom Kurtz on his 65th birthday), University of Wisconsin -Madison, 10th-13th July 2006
  • Sirl, D.J. Bounds for the decay parameter of an absorbing birth-death process, 31st Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Paris, 17-21 July 2006 [Poster]
  • Sirl, D.J. Bounds for the decay parameter of a general birth-death process, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Melbourne, 13-15 February 2006
  • Taimre, T. Dealing with degeneracy, 3rd International Conference in Applied Probability (IWAP 2006), University of Connecticut, USA, 15-18 May 2006
  • Zhang, H.J. Bounds for the decay parameter of an absorbing birth-death process, 31st Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Paris, 17-21 July 2006 [Poster]

Contributed conference presentations 2005

  • Cairns, B. Approximating hitting times in a general class of population processes, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005
  • Gladwin, B. Final times, first passage times and long time scale least action, 7th Congress of the World Association of Theoretically Oriented Chemists (WATOC 2005), Cape Town, South Africa, 16-21 January 2005
  • Gladwin, B. First-passage times and long time scale molecular dynamics, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005
  • Kravchuk, O. Adaptive rank procedures for the generalized secant hyperbolic distribution, Queensland Branch Miniconference, Statistical Society of Australia, 27 September 2005
  • Lesmono, D. A game theory approach for political elections, 41st Annual ANZIAM Conference, War Memorial Conference Centre, Napier, New Zealand, 30 January-3 February 2005
  • Lesmono, D. A Mean reverting stochastic differential equation for polls data and its application in election timing, International Conference on Scientific Computation and Differential Equations (SciCADE05), Nagoya, Japan, 23-27 May 2005
  • Lesmono, D. Election timing: a continuous-time model, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005
  • Lesmono, D. A Mathematical model for opportunistic timing and manipulation in Australian federal elections, Stochastic Modelling of Complex Systems Conference (SMOCS05), Daydream Island, 10-16 July 2005
  • Lesmono, D. Game theory in Australian politics, QANZIAM Conference, Novotel Hotel, Brisbane, 12 November 2005
  • O'Hely, M. Diffusion models for the preservation of duplicate genes, European Conference on Mathematical and Theoretical Biology, Dresden, Germany, 18-22 July 2005
  • Ross, J.V. Costs and decisions in population models, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005
  • Ross, J.V. Diffusion approximations and model fitting for ecological systems, ICE-EM Australian Graduate School in Mathematics, University of Queensland, 4-22 July 2005
  • Ross, J.V. Costs and decisions in population management: koalas on Kangaroo Island, Ecological Society of Australia Meeting, University of Queensland, 29 November-2 December 2005
  • Ross, J.V. Costs and decisions in population management: koalas on Kangaroo Island, 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Melbourne, 12-15 December 2005
  • Ross, J.V. Models for predicting extinction times: shall we dance (or walk or jump)?, 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Melbourne, 12-15 December 2005
  • Seeto, M. A branching process, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005
  • Sirl, D.J. Quasi-stationary distributions for continuous-time Markov chains, Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005
  • Zhang, H. Existence of quasi-stationary distributions, 49th Annual Meeting of the Australian Mathematical Society, University of Western Australia, 27-30 September 2005

Contributed conference presentations 2004

  • Kravchuk, O. Asymptotic optimality of rank tests of location and the Brownian Bridge, 22nd International Biometric Conference (IBC 2004), Cairns, 11-16 July 2004 [ppt]
  • Kravchuk, O. One-way nonparametric ANOVA with trigonometric scores (poster), 22nd International Biometric Conference (IBC 2004), Cairns, 11-16 July 2004 [poster (ppt)|supporting materials (ppt)]
  • O'Hely, M. Markov chain Monte-Carlo estimation of population hybridization parameters, 48th Annual Meeting of the Australian Mathematical Society, RMIT University, Melbourne, 28 September-1 October 2004
  • Ross, J.V. Diffusion approximation for a metapopulation model with habitat dynamics (poster), 6th joint meeting of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the Bernoulli Society, Barcelona, July 26-31, 2004 [poster (pdf)]
  • Sirl, D.J. Quasi-stationary distributions for a class of autocatalytic chemical reactions, 8th Brazilian School of Probability, Ubatuba, Brazil, 1-7 August 2004 [pdf]
  • Taimre., T. Application of the Cross-Entropy Method to clustering and vector quantization, INFORMS Annual Meeting, Denver, USA, 24-27 October 2004 [pdf]

Contributed conference presentations 2003

  • Cairns, B.J. Evaluating persistence times in populations that are subject to local catastrophes, the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2003), Townsville, 14-17 July 2003 [ppt]
  • Kravchuk, O. A simple linear rank test optimal for the hyperbolic secant distribution, 1st Queensland Statistics Conference, Toowoomba, 1-3 October 2003
  • Pollett, P.K. A method for evaluating the distribution of the total cost of a random process over its lifetime, the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2003), Townsville, 14-17 July 2003 [abstract|pdf]
  • Pollett, P.K. A method for analysing complex Markovian models, ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems, Melbourne, 13 November, 2003 [pdf]
  • Stace, A.W. Volume Weighted Asian Option, QANZIAM Conference, Stradbroke Island, 6-7 September 2003

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Other conference participation

  • Robert Cope attended the 38th International Probability Summer School Saint-Flour, France, 6-19 July 2008
  • Phil Pollett attended the 51st Annual Meeting of the Australian Mathematical Society, La Trobe University, 25-28 September 2007
  • Daniel Pagendam attended the MASCOS Workshop on Risk Modelling, University of Melbourne, 24 September 2007
  • Dharma Lesmono attended the APAC Summer School, The Australian National University, 10-21 January 2005
  • Dharma Lesmono attended the International Conference on Scientific Computation and Differential Equations (SciCADE05), Nagoya, Japan, 23-27 May 2005
  • Martin O'Hely attended the 10th Congress of the European Society for Evolutionary Biology, Krakow, Poland, 15-20 August 2005
  • Phil Pollett attended the 13th INFORMS Applied Probability Society Conference, Ottawa, Canada, 6-8 July 2005
  • Phil Pollett attended the Stochastic Modelling of Complex Systems Conference (SMOCS05), Daydream Island, 10-16 July 2005
  • Thomas Taimre attended the Machine Learning Summer School, The Australian National University, 23 January-5 February 2005
  • Thomas Taimre attended the Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Queensland, 7-11 February 2005
  • Dharma Lesmono attended the CMA National Research Symposium "A Celebration of Modeling & Applied Probability in honor of Joe Gani's 80th Birthday", The Australian National University, 14-15 December 2004
  • Dharma Lesmono and Antony Stace attended the Quantitative Methods in Finance 2004 Conference, Sydney, 15-18 December 2004
  • Thomas Taimre attended the MASCOS One-day Symposium "The Cross-Entropy Method: a New Approach to Rare Event Simulation and Randomized Optimization", University of Queensland, 22nd January 2004
  • Thomas Taimre attended the MASCOS Workshop on Metapopulations, University of Queensland, 2nd September 2004
  • Antony Stace attended the 5th International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics, and the embedded mini symposium "2nd National Symposium on Financial Mathematics", Sydney, 7-11 July 2003
  • Antony Stace attended the Quantitative Methods in Finance 2003 Conference Sydney, December 2003

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Invited seminars

  • Pollett, P. Limiting conditional distributions for reducible Markov chains, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Zurich, 25 April 2007
  • Pollett, P. Limiting conditional distributions for reducible Markov chains, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, 21 May 2007
  • Pollett, P. Limiting conditional distributions for reducible Markov chains, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Durham, 23 May 2007
  • Pollett, P. Modelling the long-term behaviour of evanescent processes, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, 27 September 2006: abstract, talk and bibliography
  • Sirl, D. Quasistationary distributions for continuous-time Markov chains and bounds for the decay parameter of a birth-death process, Department of Mathematical Sciences Statistics Seminar, Durham University, 7th April 2006
  • Sirl, D. Absorbing Markov chains governed by X<->2X, X->0, and similar schemes: quasistationary distributions and the decay parameter, Probability Seminar, Department of Higher Mathematics, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 19 May 2006
  • O'Hely, M. Diffusion models for the preservation of duplicate genes, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, 7 March 2005
  • O'Hely, M. Diffusion models for the preservation of duplicate genes, Complex Systems Seminar, MASCOS Melbourne, 11 March 2005
  • O'Hely, M. Diffusion models for the preservation of duplicate genes, Evolutionary Biology group at the University of Konstanz, Germany, 26 July 2005
  • Sirl, D.J. Quasi-stationary distributions for continuous-time Markov chains, Centro de Modelamiento Matematico, Universidad de Chile, 9 August 2004 [pdf]
  • O'Hely, M. Estimation des paramètres d'admixture, Petit Pois Déridé, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris, August 2004
  • O'Hely, M. Estimation des paramètres d'admixture, Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, September 2004

Other academic visits

  • Phil Pollett visited the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, April 2007
  • Thomas Taimre visited Ad Ridder at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, July-August 2007
  • Martin O'Hely visited Lounès Chikhi at Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Lisbon, Portugal, July 2006
  • Thomas Taimre visited Reuven Rubinstein in New York and David Wolpert at Stanford, May-June 2006

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Awards

  • Robert Cope was awarded a travel scholarship from Emmanuel College, University of Queensland, to attend the 38th International Probability Summer School (Saint-Flour, France, 6-19 July 2008)
  • Dan Pagendam was awarded a travel scholarship from the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences to attend the workshop "Designed Experiments: Recent Advances in Methods and Applications" (Cambridge, UK, 11-14 August 2008)
  • Dan Pagendam was awarded the International Biometrics Society (IBS) Australasian Regional Travel Award to attend the International Biometric Conference (Dublin, Ireland, 13-18 July 2008)
  • Phil Pollett (with Hugh Possingham, The Ecology Centre, The University of Queensland) was awarded $71,346 from the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA) for a project titled "Strategies for managing invasive species in space: deciding whether to eradicate, contain or control" (2008-2009)
  • Dan Pagendam received a Student Commendation for his paper titled Optimal sampling and problematic likelihood functions in a simple population model presented at the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 10-13 December 2007
  • Phil Pollett (with Janet Lanyon, School of Integrative Biology, The University of Queensland, and Jennifer Ovenden and Damien Broderick, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries) was awarded $225,000 for a project titled "Animal movement between populations deduced from family trees: a test case on dugongs in southern Queensland" under the ARC Linkage Grant Scheme (2008-2010). Collaborating organizations: Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Consolidated Rutile Ltd and Sea World.
  • Phil Pollett held the 2007 Alan David Richards Visiting Fellowship in Mathematics, Grey College Durham (UK)
  • Martin O’Hely was awarded a University of Queensland ResTeach Fellowship ($56,982 for 2006-08)
  • Phil Pollett (with Anyue Chen, University of Hong Kong, and Eric Renshaw, University of Strathclyde) was awarded HK$250,000 for a project titled "Stochastic Modelling of Interacting Branching Systems" under the Hong Kong Research Grants Council Earmarked Research Grant Scheme.
  • Joshua Ross was awarded 1st Prize in the MASCOS Press Release Competition for his article titled "Tools for Choosing a Koala Control Strategy" (January 2006)
  • Joshua Ross was awarded an AMSI/MASCOS Travel Award to attend the Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Melbourne, 13-15 February 2006
  • David Sirl was awarded an AMSI/MASCOS Travel Award to attend the Australian PG Workshop on Stochastic Processes and Modelling, University of Melbourne, 13-15 February 2006
  • David Sirl was awarded a University of Queensland Graduate School Research Travel Award to visit Durham University and Bauman Moscow State Technical University in April-June 2006
  • Antony Stace was awarded 2nd Prize in the MASCOS Press Release Competition for his article titled "Volume Weighted Average Price Options" (January 2006)
  • Thomas Taimre received a IWAP06 Travel Award to attend the 3rd International Conference in Applied Probability (IWAP 2006), University of Connecticut, USA, 15-18 May 2006
  • Dharma Lesmono was awarded a scholarship from APAC (Australian Partnership on Advanced Computing) to attend APAC Summer School, The Australian National University, 10-21 January 2005
  • Dharma Lesmono was awarded a scholarship from FIRN (Financial Integrity Research Network) to attend the Stochastic Modelling of Complex Systems Conference (SMOCS05), Daydream Island, 10-16 July 2005
  • Martin O'Hely was awarded a grant of $11,776 under the UQ New Staff Research Start-up Fund Scheme for a project titled "Detecting Hybridization from Unrepresented Parental Populations by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods" (June 2005)
  • Joshua Ross was awarded a University of Queensland Graduate School Research Travel Award to visit MASCOS Melbourne in September 2005 to work with Peter Taylor
  • David Sirl was awarded an Australian Bicentennial Scholarship to visit Dr Pauline Coolen-Schrijner's group at the University of Durham (December 2005)
  • Antony Stace was awarded first prize in the School of Physical Sciences Poster Day for his poster entitled A Moment Matching Approximation to the price of the VWAP Option
  • Thomas Taimre won the Thomas Morrow Prize 2004. This prize is awarded to the undergraduate student who, as part of his or her course of study, writes the best essay on a topic of Scientific Enquiry in Australia
  • Hanjun Zhang was awarded a grant of $12,000 under the UQ New Staff Research Start-up Fund Scheme for a project titled "Convergence Rates for Ergodic Markov Chains" (October 2005)
  • Joshua Ross was awarded an Institute of Mathematical Statistics Laha Travel Award to attend the IMS Annual Meeting (Barcelona, Spain, July 26-31, 2004) The Laha Award recipients were welcomed and honored at a Presidential Address [Photo]
  • The title of "ARC Centre Fellow" (ACF) was conferred on Hanjun Zhang by the ARC, June 2004 [the ARC acknowledges the most outstanding ARC Centre Research Fellows through the award of ACFs]
  • Joshua Ross was awarded an AMSI travel scholarship to attend the Workshop on Stochastics and their Applications, University of South Australia, 27 September-1 October 2004
  • Dharma Lesmono was awarded an ICE-EM travel scholarship to attend BioInfoSummer04, The Australian National University, 6-10 December 2004
  • Dharma Lesmono was awarded a scholarship from FIRN (Financial Integrity Research Network) to attend Quantitative Methods in Finance 2004 Conference, Sydney, 15-18 December 2004
  • Ben Cairns received a Student Commendation for his paper titled Evaluating persistence times in populations that are subject to local catastrophes presented at the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2003), Townsville, 14-17 July 2003
  • Caitlin James was awarded the 2003 Australian Federation of Business and Professional Women Prize
  • Antony Stace was awarded an AMSI travel scholarship to attend the 5th International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics, and the embedded mini symposium "2nd National Symposium on Financial Mathematics", Sydney, 7-11 July 2003

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School Poster Day   Each year the UQ School of Physical Science holds its Poster Day to give all its postgraduate students the opportunity to present their work to a general audience. Here are some posters from MASCOS students:

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Outreach

  • Ben Cairns and Ben Gladwin participated as presenters at the University of Queensland's 2004 and 2005 Experience Science, a series of workshops for Year 11 and 12 students interested in enrolling in a science degree, and also presented a workshop at the 2004 and 2005 Siemens Science Experience (a similar kind of event for Year 9 students).
  • David Sirl spoke at the 2005 NSW State Conference of the Isolated Children's Parents' Association (ICPA) about his educational experiences. The event was attended by the Deputy Prime Minister, John Anderson. [photo]
  • Ben Gladwin organised the Mathematics Department Booth at National Science Week "Science in the City" Exhibition, 20-22 August 2005, Queensland Museum. Photos: [1|2|3|4|5|6|7]

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The Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistics
of Complex Systems is funded by the Australian Research
Council, with additional support from the Queensland
State Government and the University of Queensland